Estimating US fossil fuel CO2 emissions from measurements of 14C in atmospheric CO2

Summary/Abstract

We report national scale estimates of CO₂ emissions from fossil-fuel combustion and cement production in the United States based directly on atmospheric observations, using a dual-tracer inverse modeling framework and CO₂ and $Δ^{14} {CO}_{2}$ measurements obtained primarily from the North American portion of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s Global Greenhouse Gas Reference Network. The derived US national total for 2010 is 1,653 ± 30 TgC yr⁻¹ with an uncertainty ( $1 σ$ ) that takes into account random errors associated with atmospheric transport, atmospheric measurements, and specified prior CO₂ and ¹⁴C fluxes. The atmosphere-derived estimate is significantly larger ( $> 3 σ$ ) than US national emissions for 2010 from three global inventories widely used for CO₂ accounting, even after adjustments for emissions that might be sensed by the atmospheric network, but which are not included in inventory totals. It is also larger ( $> 2 σ$ ) than a similarly adjusted total from the US Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), but overlaps EPA’s reported upper 95% confidence limit. In contrast, the atmosphere-derived estimate is within $1 σ$ of the adjusted 2010 annual total and nine of 12 adjusted monthly totals aggregated from the latest version of the high-resolution, US-specific “Vulcan” emission data product. Derived emissions appear to be robust to a range of assumed prior emissions and other parameters of the inversion framework. While we cannot rule out a possible bias from assumed prior Net Ecosystem Exchange over North America, we show that this can be overcome with additional $Δ^{14} {CO}_{2}$ measurements. These results indicate the strong potential for quantification of US emissions and their multiyear trends from atmospheric observations.