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Extreme Runoff Generation From Atmospheric River Driven Snowmelt During the 2017 Oroville Dam Spillways Incident

Summary/Abstract

In February 2017, a 5‐day sequence of atmospheric river storms in California, USA, resulted in extreme inflows to Lake Oroville, the state’s second‐largest reservoir. Damage to the reservoir’s spillway infrastructure necessitated evacuation of 188,000 people; subsequent infrastructure repairs cost $1 billion. We assess the atmospheric conditions, snowmelt, and runoff against major historical events. The event generated exceptional runoff volumes (second largest in a 30‐yr record) partially at odds with the event precipitation totals (ninth largest). We explain the discrepancy with observed record melt of deep antecedent snowpack, heavy rainfall extending to unusually high elevations, and high water vapor transport during the atmospheric river storms. An analysis of distributed snow water equivalent indicates that snowmelt increased water available for runoff watershed‐wide by 37% (25–52% at 90% confidence). The results highlight potential threats to public safety and infrastructure associated with a warmer and more variable climate.

Henn, B., Musselman, K. N., Lestak, L., Ralph, F. M., & Molotch, N. P. (2020). Extreme runoff generation from atmospheric river driven snowmelt during the 2017 Oroville dam spillways incident. Geophysical Research Letters, 47, e2020GL088189.

View Resource
June 2020
Brian Henn, Keith N. Musselman, Leanne Lestak , F. Martin Ralph, Noah P. Molotch
American Geophysical Union
Peer-reviewed Study
California
Extreme Event Attribution → Extreme Rainfall
Impact Attribution → Inland Flooding and Hydrologic Impacts

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