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Extreme Event Attribution

This category encompasses research aimed at understanding how human-induced changes in the global climate system affect the probability, severity, and other characteristics of extreme events such as hurricanes and heat waves.

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Causes of 2022 Pakistan flooding and its linkage with China and Europe heatwaves

October 2023
Chi-Cherng Hong, An-Yi Huang, Huang-Hsiung Hsu, Wan-Ling Tseng, Mong-Ming Lu, Chih-Chun Chang
NPJ Climate and Atmospheric Science
This peer-reviewed study examines the 2022 Pakistan floods that displaced over 30 million people and heatwaves over central China and Europe during the same period, and finds a broader teleconnection pattern linking these phenomena.Read More →

Soil heat extremes can outpace air temperature extremes

September 2023
Almudena García-García, Francisco José Cuesta-Valero, Diego G. Miralles, Miguel D. Mahecha, Johannes Quaas, Markus Reichstein, Jakob Zscheischler & Jian Peng
Nature Climate Change
This peer-reviewed study finds that extreme soil temperatures in Central Europe have increased faster than extreme air temperatures, and identifies soil temperature as a key factor in the soil moisture-temperature feedback cycle. Read More →

Interplay of climate change-exacerbated rainfall, exposure and vulnerability led to widespread impacts in the Mediterranean region

September 2023
Mariam Zachariah, Vassiliki Kotroni, Lagouvardos Kostas, Clair Barnes, Joyce Kimutai, Sarah Kew, Izidine Pinto, Nadia Bloemendaal, Wenchang Yang, Maja Vahlberg, Roop Singh, Lisa Thalheimer, Friederike Otto
Grantham Institute for Climate Change
This real-time event study assesses the torrential rain that fell in several countries across the Mediterranean in September 2023, and evaluates the role of human-induced climate change in the frequency and severity of such events.Read More →

Observational and model evidence together support wide-spread exposure to noncompensable heat under continued global warming

September 2023
Carter M. Powis, David Byrne, Zachary Zobel, Kelly N. Gassert, A.C. Lute, Christopher R. Schwalm
Science Advances
This peer-reviewed study performs a statistical extrapolation of temperature and humidity trends to calculate the annual likelihood of unsurvivable conditions (six hours of exposure to 35°C wet-bulb temperatures) in six different warming regimes.Read More →

State of the Climate in Africa 2022

September 2023
World Meteorological Organization
World Meteorological Organization
This synthesis report shows that the rate of temperature increase in Africa has accelerated in recent decades, with weather- and climate-related hazards becoming more severe.Read More →

Fewer, but More Intense, Future Tropical Storms Over the Ganges and Mekong Basins

August 2023
Haider Ali, Hayley J. Fowler, Benoit Vanniere, Malcolm J. Roberts
Geophysical Research Letters
This peer-reviewed study uses high-resolution tropical storm models to assess the impact of climate change on tropical storm activity in southeast Asia, and finds a decline in tropical storm frequency, but increase in strength and energy.Read More →

Decreasing fire season precipitation increased recent western U.S. forest wildfire activity

August 2023
Zachary Holden, Alan Swanson, Charles Luce, W. Jolly, Marco Maneta, Jared Oyler, Dyer Warren, Russell Parsons, and David Affleck
Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences
This peer-reviewed study uses climate modeling and statistical analysis of precipitation trends from 1979 to 2015 in the western United States to show that declines in summer precipitation contributed to the area of land burned by wildfires.Read More →

State of the Climate in the South-West Pacific 2022

August 2023
World Meteorological Organization
World Meteorological Organization
This synthesis report summarizes the state of the climate, extreme events, and their socioeconomic impacts in the South-West Pacific in 2022.Read More →

The Impact of Human-Induced Climate Change on Future Tornado Intensity as Revealed Through Multi-Scale Modeling

August 2023
Matthew J. Woods, Robert J. Trapp, Holly M. Mallinson
Geophysical Research Letters
This peer-reviewed study applies a novel climate-modeling approach to show evidence of potential increases in tornado intensity due to human-induced climate change.Read More →

State of the Climate in Asia 2022

July 2023
World Meteorological Organization
World Meteorological Organization
This synthesis report summarizes the state of the climate and the extreme events and their socioeconomic impacts in Asia in 2022.Read More →

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