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Observational and model evidence together support wide-spread exposure to noncompensable heat under continued global warming

Summary/Abstract

As our planet warms, a critical research question is when and where temperatures will exceed the limits of what the human body can tolerate. Past modeling efforts have investigated the 35°C wet-bulb threshold, proposed as a theoretical upper limit to survivability taking into account physiological and behavioral adaptation. Here, the authors conduct an extreme value theory analysis of weather station observations and climate model projections to investigate the emergence of an empirically supported heat compensability limit. This study shows that the hottest parts of the world already experience these heat extremes on a limited basis and that under moderate continued warming parts of every continent, except Antarctica, will see a rapid increase in their extent and frequency. To conclude, the authors discuss the consequences of the emergence of this noncompensable heat and the need for incorporating different critical thermal limits into heat adaptation planning.

Powis et al., Observational and model evidence together support wide-spread exposure to noncompensable heat under continued global warming, Sci. Adv. 9, eadg9297 (2023)

View Resource
September 2023
Carter M. Powis, David Byrne, Zachary Zobel, Kelly N. Gassert, A.C. Lute, Christopher R. Schwalm
Science Advances
Peer-reviewed Study
Global
Extreme Event Attribution
Extreme Event Attribution → Extreme Heat
Impact Attribution
Impact Attribution → Public Health

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