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Extreme Event Attribution


Extreme Heat

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The heatwave in North India and Pakistan in April-May 2022

May 2022
Nikolaos Christidis
Met Office
This study finds that the chances of a record-breaking heatwave in north-west India and Pakistan has been made over 100 times more likely because of climate change.Read More →

Forecast-based attribution of a winter heatwave within the limit of predictability

December 2021
Nicholas J. Leach, Antje Weisheimer, Myles R. Allen, and Tim Palmer
Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America
This study uses a forecast-based methodology to partially attribute the direct radiative effect of increased CO2 concentrations on the exceptional European winter heatwave of February 2019.Read More →

The effect of deforestation and climate change on all-cause mortality and unsafe work conditions due to heat exposure in Berau, Indonesia: a modelling study

November 2021
Nicholas H Wolff, PhD, Lucas R Vargas Zeppetello, MS, Luke A Parsons, PhD, Ike Aggraeni, PhD, Prof David S Battisti, PhD, Prof Kristie L Ebi, PhD, Edward T Game, PhD, Timm Kroeger, PhD, Yuta J Masuda, PhD, and June T Spector, MD
The Lancet Planetary Health
This study estimates the effects of deforestation and climate change on all-cause mortality and unsafe work conditions due to heat exposure in the tropics.Read More →

Global urban population exposure to extreme heat

October 2021
Cascade Tuholske, Kelly Caylor, Chris Funk, Andrew Verdin, Stuart Sweeney, Kathryn Grace, Pete Peterson, and Tom Evans
Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America
This study finds that global population exposure to extreme heat increased nearly 200% from 1983 to 2016. Read More →

Assessment of Historic and Future Trends of Extreme Weather in Texas, 1900-2036

October 2021
John Nielsen-Gammon, Sara Holman, Austin Buley, Savannah Jorgensen
Texas A&M University Office of the Texas State Climatologist
This report analyzes historic observations of temperature, precipitation, and extreme weather in Texas and identifies ongoing and likely future trends out to the year 2036.Read More →

Intergenerational inequities in exposure to climate extremes

September 2021
Wim Thiery, Stefan Lange, Joeri Rogelj, Carl-Friedrich Schleussner, Lukas Gudmundsson, Sonia I. Seneviratne, Marina Andrijevic, Katja Frieler, Kerry Emanuel, Tobias Geiger, David N. Bresch, Fang Zhao, Sven N. Willner, Matthias Büchner, Jan Volkholz, Nico Bauer, Jinfeng Chang, Philippe Ciais, Marie Dury, Louis François, Manolis Grillakis, Simon N. Gosling, Naota Hanasaki, Thomas Hickler, Veronika Huber, Akihiko Ito, Jonas Jägermeyr, Nikolay Khabarov, Aristeidis Koutroulis, Wenfeng Liu, Wolfgang Lutz, Matthias Mengel, Christoph Müller, Sebastian Ostberg, Christopher P. O. Reyer, Tobias Stacke, Yoshihide Wada
Science
This study estimates that, under current climate pledges, children born in 2020 will experience a two- to sevenfold increase in extreme events, particularly heat waves, compared with people born in 1960.Read More →

Feedback attribution to dry heatwaves over East Asia

March 2021
Ye-Won Seo, Kyung-Ja Ha, Tae-Won Park
IOP
This study provides a better understanding of combined extreme climate events in the context of radiative and dynamic feedback processes.Read More →

An Initialized Attribution Method for Extreme Events on Subseasonal to Seasonal Time Scales

January 2021
Guomin Wang, Pandora Hope, Eun-Pa Lim, Harry H. Hendon, Julie M Arblaster
American-Meteorological Society
This paper describes a method to attribute extreme weather and climate events to observed increases in atmospheric CO2 using an initialized subseasonal to seasonal coupled global climate prediction system.Read More →

Changes in annual extreme temperature and heat indices in Limpopo province: period 1941–2016

January 2021
Mohau J. Mateyisi, Malebajoa A. Maoela, Amukelani Maluleke, Mokhele E. Moeletsi, Graham von Maltitz
Springer
Statistically significant warming trends at 5 of 10 climate stations within the Limpopo province in South Africa were observed from 1941-2016.Read More →

Potential linkages of extreme climate events with vegetation and large-scale circulation indices in an endorheic river basin in northwest China

January 2021
Qingping Cheng, Fanglei Zhong, Ping Wang
Elsevier
Extreme climate indices were significantly correlated with vegetation types and large-scale circulation indices in the HRB.Read More →

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