Climate Attribution

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Heatwave attribution based on reliable operational weather forecasts

May 2024
Nicholas J. Leach, Christopher D. Roberts, Matthias Aengenheyster, Daniel Heathcote, Dann M. Mitchell, Vikki Thompson, Tim Palmer, Antje Weisheimer, Myles R. Allen
Nature Communications
In this peer-reviewed study, the authors use state-of-the-art operational weather prediction systems to simulate the 2021 Pacific Northwest heatwave, and demonstrate that anthropogenic climate change made this event at least 8 times more likely.Read More →

Climate Change and the Escalation of Global Extreme Heat: Assessing and Addressing the Risks

May 2024
Julie Arrighi, Friederike E. L Otto, Carolina Pereira Marghidan, Sjoukje Philip, Roop Singh, Maja Vahlberg, Joseph Giguere, Andrew J. Pershing, Arielle Tannenbaum, Abbie Veitch
World Weather Attribution
In this global study, the authors identify and assess the role of climate change in 76 extreme heat waves that spanned 90 countries over the 12-month period between May 2023 and May 2024.Read More →

Extreme Sahel Heatwave that Hit Highly Vulnerable Population at the End of Ramadan Would Not Have Occurred Without Climate Change

April 2024
Clair Barnes, Friederike E. L. Otto, Ben Clarke, Izidine Pinto, Kiswendsida Guigma, Idrissa S. Savadogo, Boukary Dara, Dazangwende Emmanuel Poan, Gansané Adama, Tangessingnon Bakari Sankara, Guillaume Nakoulma, Souleymane Konate, Maja Vahlberg, Sajanika Sivanu, Roop Singh, Julie Arrighi
Worldwide Weather Attribution
This real-time event attribution study combines climate models with observations of the March/April 2024 heat wave across North Africa and the Sahel to estimate the influence of human-caused climate change.Read More →

Dangerous Humid Heat in Southern West Africa About 4°C Hotter Due to Climate Change

March 2024
Izidine Pinto, Romaric C. Odoulami, Kamoru Abiodun Lawal, Eniola Olaniyan, Wasiu Adeniyi Ibrahim, Kiswendsida Guigma, Maja Vahlberg, Dorothy Heinrich, Carolina Pereira Marghidan, Martha Vogel, Julie Arrighi, Claire Barnes, Friederike E. L. Otto, Sjoukje Philip
Worldwide Weather Attribution
This real-time event attribution study evaluates the degree to which human-induced climate change has influenced the occurrence of high temperatures in West Africa.Read More →

Exponential increases in high-temperature extremes in North America

November 2023
Ali Davariashtiyani, Mohsen Taherkhani, Seyyedfaridoddin Fattahpour, Sean Vitousek
Nature Scientific Reports
This peer-reviewed study investigates continuous shifts in the frequency of extreme high-temperature events due to projected local warming trends, and finds that the odds of passing 50-year extreme high-temperatures doubles every 20 years. Read More →

Causes of 2022 Pakistan flooding and its linkage with China and Europe heatwaves

October 2023
Chi-Cherng Hong, An-Yi Huang, Huang-Hsiung Hsu, Wan-Ling Tseng, Mong-Ming Lu, Chih-Chun Chang
NPJ Climate and Atmospheric Science
This peer-reviewed study examines the 2022 Pakistan floods that displaced over 30 million people and heatwaves over central China and Europe during the same period, and finds a broader teleconnection pattern linking these phenomena.Read More →

Soil heat extremes can outpace air temperature extremes

September 2023
Almudena García-García, Francisco José Cuesta-Valero, Diego G. Miralles, Miguel D. Mahecha, Johannes Quaas, Markus Reichstein, Jakob Zscheischler & Jian Peng
Nature Climate Change
This peer-reviewed study finds that extreme soil temperatures in Central Europe have increased faster than extreme air temperatures, and identifies soil temperature as a key factor in the soil moisture-temperature feedback cycle. Read More →

Observational and model evidence together support wide-spread exposure to noncompensable heat under continued global warming

September 2023
Carter M. Powis, David Byrne, Zachary Zobel, Kelly N. Gassert, A.C. Lute, Christopher R. Schwalm
Science Advances
This peer-reviewed study performs a statistical extrapolation of temperature and humidity trends to calculate the annual likelihood of unsurvivable conditions (six hours of exposure to 35°C wet-bulb temperatures) in six different warming regimes.Read More →