Summary/Abstract
Anthropogenic climate change is increasing the risk of extreme weather that can lead to infectious disease epidemics, but few studies have directly measured this health consequence of climate change. Extreme precipitation can drive outbreaks of mosquito-borne diseases by displacing people, disrupting public health activities, and creating aquatic breeding habitats.
Here, the authors quantify the effects of extreme precipitation during Cyclone Yaku in northwestern Peru in March 2023. The cyclone was immediately followed by a dengue outbreak where cases exceeded historic averages by 10-fold. The authors estimate that 60% of the cases (or 22,014 cases) reported over 3 months in the affected districts were attributable to extreme precipitation during Cyclone Yaku. Compared with the preindustrial era, extremely wet March conditions were 31% more likely to occur (and 189% more likely to co-occur with warm temperatures suitable for dengue transmission) in recent decades in northwestern Peru. Assessing the linkages between climate change, extreme weather, and outbreaks of dengue and other infectious diseases is crucial for understanding the current impacts of climate change and for preparing for future health risks.