Summary/Abstract
Northern Kazakhstan is a major wheat exporter, but faces fluctuating wheat yields and low-producing years. In 2010 Kazakhstan faced a particularly low-producing year, with severe consequences for the food security of wheat-importing countries.
In this peer-reviewed study, published in Environmental Research: Climate, the authors quantify the impact of human-induced climate change on the average wheat production and associated economic revenues in northern Kazakhstan in the 21st century and on the likelihood of a low-production year like 2010. The study uses bias-adjusted counterfactual and factual climate model data from two large ensembles of latest-generation climate models as input to a statistical subnational yield model.
The authors conclude that human-induced climate change has had a critical impact on wheat production, specifically through increases in daily-minimum temperatures and extreme heat. This has resulted in a decrease in yields during 2000–2019 by approximately 6.2%–8.2%, and an increased likelihood of the 2010 low-production event by 1.5–4.7 times (ranges reflecting different confidence intervals, across both climate models applied to this study). The study further estimates that, during 2000–2019, human-induced climate change caused economic losses estimated at between 96 and 180 million USD per year (10th to 90th percentile uncertainty range covering both climate models).