Climate Attribution

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Climate change, El Niño and infrastructure failures behind massive floods in southern Brazil

June 2024
Ben Clarke, Clair Barnes, Regina Rodrigues, Mariam Zachariah, Lincoln Muniz Alves, Rein Haarsma, Izidine Pinto, Wenchang Yang, Maja Vahlberg, Gabriel Vecchi, Karina Izquierdo, Joyce Kimutai, Friederike E. L Otto
World Weather Attribution
This real-time event study uses peer-reviewed climate models to investigate the combined impact of climate change and the El Niño Southern Oscillation that led to extensive flooding in Brazil in late April and early May 2024.Read More →

Heatwave attribution based on reliable operational weather forecasts

May 2024
Nicholas J. Leach, Christopher D. Roberts, Matthias Aengenheyster, Daniel Heathcote, Dann M. Mitchell, Vikki Thompson, Tim Palmer, Antje Weisheimer, Myles R. Allen
Nature Communications
In this peer-reviewed study, the authors use state-of-the-art operational weather prediction systems to simulate the 2021 Pacific Northwest heatwave, and demonstrate that anthropogenic climate change made this event at least 8 times more likely.Read More →

Climate Change and the Escalation of Global Extreme Heat: Assessing and Addressing the Risks

May 2024
Julie Arrighi, Friederike E. L Otto, Carolina Pereira Marghidan, Sjoukje Philip, Roop Singh, Maja Vahlberg, Joseph Giguere, Andrew J. Pershing, Arielle Tannenbaum, Abbie Veitch
World Weather Attribution
In this global study, the authors identify and assess the role of climate change in 76 extreme heat waves that spanned 90 countries over the 12-month period between May 2023 and May 2024.Read More →

Urban planning at the heart of increasingly severe East African flood impacts in a warming world

May 2024
Joyce Kimutai, Clair Barnes, Fredrick Masambaya, Izidine Pinto, Obed Matundura Ogega, Zacharia Mwai, Hannah Wangari, Mary Kilavi, Maja Vahlberg, Julie Arrighi, Emmanuel Raju, Nick Baumgar, Friederike E. L. Otto
World Weather Attribution
In this peer-reviewed event study, the authors assess the impact of climate change, along with several compounding factors, on a series of heavy rainfall events between March and May of 2024 in Kenya and Tanzania which caused heavy flooding.  Read More →

Autumn and Winter storms over UK and Ireland are becoming wetter due to climate change

May 2024
Sarah F. Kew, Mark McCarthy, Ciara Ryan, Jennifer S.R. Pirret, Ellie Murtagh, Maja Vahlberg, Adwoa Amankona, James O. Pope, Fraser Lott, Oliver Claydon, Barry Coonan, Izidine Pinto, Clair Barnes, Sjoukje Philip
World Weather Attribution
This peer-reviewed event study assesses the extent to which human-induced climate change and the North Atlantic Oscillation influenced the average storm severity over the United Kingdom and Ireland from October 2023 to March 2024.Read More →

Extreme Sahel Heatwave that Hit Highly Vulnerable Population at the End of Ramadan Would Not Have Occurred Without Climate Change

April 2024
Clair Barnes, Friederike E. L. Otto, Ben Clarke, Izidine Pinto, Kiswendsida Guigma, Idrissa S. Savadogo, Boukary Dara, Dazangwende Emmanuel Poan, Gansané Adama, Tangessingnon Bakari Sankara, Guillaume Nakoulma, Souleymane Konate, Maja Vahlberg, Sajanika Sivanu, Roop Singh, Julie Arrighi
Worldwide Weather Attribution
This real-time event attribution study combines climate models with observations of the March/April 2024 heat wave across North Africa and the Sahel to estimate the influence of human-caused climate change.Read More →

Dangerous Humid Heat in Southern West Africa About 4°C Hotter Due to Climate Change

March 2024
Izidine Pinto, Romaric C. Odoulami, Kamoru Abiodun Lawal, Eniola Olaniyan, Wasiu Adeniyi Ibrahim, Kiswendsida Guigma, Maja Vahlberg, Dorothy Heinrich, Carolina Pereira Marghidan, Martha Vogel, Julie Arrighi, Claire Barnes, Friederike E. L. Otto, Sjoukje Philip
Worldwide Weather Attribution
This real-time event attribution study evaluates the degree to which human-induced climate change has influenced the occurrence of high temperatures in West Africa.Read More →