Climate Attribution

Heatwave attribution based on reliable operational weather forecasts

May 2024
Nicholas J. Leach, Christopher D. Roberts, Matthias Aengenheyster, Daniel Heathcote, Dann M. Mitchell, Vikki Thompson, Tim Palmer, Antje Weisheimer, Myles R. Allen
Nature Communications
In this peer-reviewed study, the authors use state-of-the-art operational weather prediction systems to simulate the 2021 Pacific Northwest heatwave, and demonstrate that anthropogenic climate change made this event at least 8 times more likely.Read More →

Urban planning at the heart of increasingly severe East African flood impacts in a warming world

May 2024
Joyce Kimutai, Clair Barnes, Fredrick Masambaya, Izidine Pinto, Obed Matundura Ogega, Zacharia Mwai, Hannah Wangari, Mary Kilavi, Maja Vahlberg, Julie Arrighi, Emmanuel Raju, Nick Baumgar, Friederike E. L. Otto
World Weather Attribution
In this peer-reviewed event study, the authors assess the impact of climate change, along with several compounding factors, on a series of heavy rainfall events between March and May of 2024 in Kenya and Tanzania which caused heavy flooding.  Read More →

Wildfire Smoke Exposure and Mortality Burden in the US Under Future Climate Change

March 2024
Minghao Qiu, Jessica Li, Carlos F. Gould, Renzhi Jing, Makoto Kelp, Marissa L. Childs, Jeff Wen, Yuanyu Xie, Meiyun Lin, Mathew V. Kiang, Sam Heft-Neal, Noah S. Diffenbaugh, Marshall Burke
EarthArXiv (preprint)
This study projects increased mortality in the U.S. due to exposure to PM2.5 from wildfire smoke under future climate change scenarios, and projects changes in smoke PM2.5 concentrations and their health impacts.Read More →

Offshoring Emissions Through Used Vehicle Exports

February 2024
Saul Justin Newman, Kayla Schulte, Micol Matilde Morellini, Charles Rahal, Douglas R. Leasure
Nature Climate Change
In this peer-reviewed study, the authors estimate the emissions-shifting impact of used vehicle exports from Great Britain between 2005 and 2021. They conclude that exported vehicles generate significantly more CO2 per kilometer.Read More →

Critical Transitions in the Amazon Forest System

February 2024
Bernardo M. Flores, Encarni Montoya, Boris Sakschewski, Nathália Nascimento, Arie Staal, Richard A. Betts, Carolina Levis, David M. Lapola, Adriane Esquível-Muelbert, Catarina Jakovac, Carlos A. Nobre, Rafael S. Oliveira, Laura S. Borma, Da Nian, Niklas Boers, Susanna B. Hecht, Hans ter Steege, Julia Arieira, Isabella L. Lucas, Erika Berenguer, José A. Marengo, Luciana V. Gatti, Caio R. C. Mattos, Marina Hirota
Nature
This peer-reviewed study assesses five major drivers of water stress on Amazonian forests, and projects that, by 2050, 10% to 47% of Amazonian forests may face unexpected ecosystem transitions.Read More →