Summary/Abstract
Canada is expected to see an increase in fire risk under future climate projections. Large fires, such as that near Fort McMurray, Alberta in 2016, can be devastating to the communities affected. Understanding the role of human emissions in the occurrence of such extreme fire events can lend insight into how these events might change in the future. This study uses an event attribution framework to quantify the influence of anthropogenic emissions contributions on extreme fire risk in the current climate of a western Canada region. Fourteen metrics from the Canadian Forest Fire Danger Rating System are used to define the extreme fire seasons. For the majority of these metrics and during the current decade, the study estimates that the combined effect of anthropogenic and natural forcing made extreme fire risk events in the region 1.5 to 6 times more likely compared to a climate that would have been with natural variables alone.