Summary/Abstract
Tornadoes are responsible for several high-impact weather disasters in Japan. However, little is known about how these events have changed over the last several decades or how they may change in future climates. This peer-reviewed study examines environmental conditions associated with tornados in Japan. The authors first determine appropriate parameters of F2+ tornadoes using thermodynamic, kinematic, and multivariate tornado parameters, and confirm that F2+ tornadoes occur in environments with higher instability and helicity (two key parameters of F2+ formation), but are better distinguished using multivariate parameters. The study documents recent trends that indicate that F2+ environments have increased significantly in some regions of Japan over the last four decades.
The authors also examined future changes for each parameter using a large ensemble 2-K warming experiment. Under such a model, robust increases in strong tornado environments are depicted in many regions in Japan, particularly on the Sea of Japan side and the Kanto region. This indicates that despite certain mitigating atmospheric factors, climate change will result in Japan facing more days with F2+ tornado potential.