Summary/Abstract
The global expansion of livestock farming has significantly driven socioeconomic development but also imposed substantial pressure on vegetation ecosystems. This trend is particularly evident in Mongolia, where extensive grazing impacts have been studied through plot-level experiments and fencing trials; however, capturing these effects with high spatial resolution across Mongolia remains challenging due to complex spatial heterogeneity—especially amid concurrent climate change.
This study addresses this gap by analyzing growing-season vegetation dynamics across Mongolia from 1982 to 2024 and attributing changes to grazing and climatic drivers. The authors developed a downscaling approach and reconstructed four decades of pixel-level grazing intensity by integrating national livestock statistics and remote sensing data. The findings reveal that despite a near-doubling of grazing intensity across Mongolia, vegetation cover showed an overall greening trend over the study period, with a notable transition from decline to increase around 2007. Two complementary attribution approaches consistently demonstrated that climate was the dominant driver of vegetation dynamics, accounting for approximately 90% of the modeled explanatory share. By contrast, grazing accounted for only about 10% overall, but exerted strong localized effects, particularly in the mountainous and topographically complex regions of western, central, and northern Mongolia. These findings suggest that large-scale monitoring and assessment of vegetation dynamics should jointly consider climatic constraints and localized grazing disturbances, thereby supporting the sustainable vegetation and ecological development in Mongolia.