Summary/Abstract
The Three Rivers Source Region (TRSR), the headwater region of the Yellow River, the Mekong River, and the Yangtze River, plays a significant role in water resources, food security, economy, and society in downstream areas. The TRSR contributes significantly to China’s economy by determining a large percentage of the streamflow of the two rivers and playing a large role in the region’s water cycle. The Tibetan Plateau, the home of the TRSI, is warming two times faster than the global average, with severe impacts for China’s population. This peer-reviewed study uses climate modeling to evaluate the role of climate and vegetation change on runoff in the region. The results show that climate change will create warmer and wetter conditions which will affect the runoff rate oppositely– warmer temperatures will decrease runoff while increased precipitation with increase runoff. Overall, the trend decreasing runoff with be dominant, posing a threat to water availability and economic activities in China. The results provide evidence that anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions and related vegetation and climatic changes are to blame for changes to streamflow in the TRSI.