Summary/Abstract
The consecutive occurrence of droughts and floods has widespread impacts on agriculture, the ecosystem, and the environment. This study examines the changes in frequency, intensity, and elapsed time of transitions between dry and wet periods under a warming climate, based on observations and an ensemble of 10 Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 climate simulations. It finds that approximately 59% of global land area is expected to experience a shorter transition time between dry and wet periods. Southern Asia suffers the most severe dry-to-wet transition. Furthermore, the study’s findings reveal that enhanced potential evapotranspiration (PET) variability contributes to the accelerated transition between dry and wet periods over Southern Asia, and the acceleration of dry-to-wet transitions in Southern North America is associated with an increase in precipitation and PET variabilities as climate warms.
The study concludes that, as global warming intensifies, there will be accelerated transitions from dry to wet periods in most parts of the United States, Europe, the southern part of South America, Southeastern Asia, and Southwestern Australia, with about 59% of global land area under a warming climate. Approximately 32% of global land area are projected to experience more frequent, more intense, and more rapid transitions between dry and wet periods. This “climate whiplash” or “weather whiplash” can pose a significant threat to existing emergency response systems.